The biggest lie is that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had a great election and may even be in government forever. In reality, they got 42% of the vote, their lowest ever. As turnout was also at a record low, only a quarter of registered voters supported them. Turnout was particularly low in working-class areas and among the young, thus benefiting them. For most of the past hundred years, they formed both the government and the main opposition. Now their combined total cannot even get a clear parliamentary majority.
The second myth is more insidious. Namely that the Green party ‘delivered’ and this is why they were decimated. The sub text is that an ungracious electorate cannot accept their morally correct stance on climate change. Once again reality contradicts the myth. An exit poll showed that more than half of the electorate did not think that the government went far enough on climate change. When you look at the Green Party record of supporting data centre expansion, voting against a ban on fossil fuel exploration, and facilitating an LNG terminal it is no wonder. Many people blame the Greens for their focus on individual action and their linkage of climate change to austerity for working people.
The third myth is that Sinn Féin made gains but, in fact, they lost one fifth of their supporters. In 2020 they scored 25% of the vote but in 2020 they dropped to 19%. Sinn Féin tried to move to the centre, dithered and made concessions to anti-migrant sentiment. They only recovered from terrible local elections by arguing that they offered the only realistic chance of leading an alternative government. In other words, even their diminished support base is ‘thin’. People vote for them without any enthusiasm to rid themselves of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The anti-capitalist left in People Before Profit-Solidarity had a contradictory result, on one hand, our national vote marginally increased but we also lost two seats. Clearly, lessons can be learnt about specific areas but the overall objective climate was not in our favour.
Ireland is unique in Europe in experiencing a capitalist boom and a huge government surplus. The basis of this boom is a tax haven for US multinationals. The Irish state has written its tax laws to allow for the onshoring of intellectual property and for ‘contract marketing’ whereby goods are not actually manufactured in Ireland but ‘booked’ here for tax purposes. In a world of growing imperialist competition, the US is making every effort to regain its economic hegemony over its Western rivals. How this will affect Ireland’s tax dodging model has yet to be seen. But for the moment a significant section of working people feels the effects of full employment while others are stuck on miserable low wages. The boom and the huge government surplus helped slow down the decline of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The level of struggle led by social movements is also low. In 2014, there was a huge movement against water charges which led to a mass boycott. In 2015, a mass movement drove through Marriage Equality so that Ireland became the first country to recognise gay marriage as a result of popular suffrage. In 2018, tens of thousands who marched on the streets forced through the Repeal referendum. In this upward cycle of struggle the anti-capitalist left grew considerably. Since then, it has declined and there is much more passivity and demoralisation. Every poll, for example, indicates a huge concern over the housing issue. But there has not been a movement to force though change in recent years. The primary culprit here is the Raise the Roof coalition which is dominated by ICTU bureaucrats. They have singularly failed to mobilise. Similarly, there is huge anger over the cost of living. But where is the workers’ movement putting in claims for higher wages?
All of this means we now face a return of a government led by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. It is most likely that this will get its majority by co-opting conservative independents who play a clientelist version of politics.
Ireland, however, suffers from a debased type of reformism where moderate social democrats seek to join conservative forces in government. People Before Profit have consistently called on these parties to rule out coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. We are therefore disappointed to see the Social Democrats and Labour write to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael seeking negotiations. Nevertheless, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are most likely to favour a coalition with independents as they feel that the Social Democrats in particular are not sufficiently house-trained. In their coded language they indicate they might not be able to withstand enough popular pressure to vote for nasty measures.
There is one advantage in all of this. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael may, therefore, rule without a mudguard. This means they will be less able to deflect anger onto a smaller left-leaning party if the door is closed to Labour and the Social Democrats. We are therefore likely to be confronting a naked right-wing government in an era of global turbulence. The left will be given plenty of opportunity to mobilise people power movements from below. Let’s make sure we are up to the fight.